Preview: Miami Heat (0-0) at Boston Celtics (0-0) Round 1 Game #1 4/21/24

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Miami Heat (0-0) at Boston Celtics (0-0)
Sunday, April 21, 2024
1:00 PM ET
Playoffs Round 1 Game #1 Home Game #1
TV: ABC
Radio: 98.5 Sports Hub, WQAM 560, Sirius XM
TD Garden

 For the fourth time in 5 years, the Celtics and Heat face off in a playoff series.  In the regular season this year, the Celtics won all 3 games between them, winning 2 in Miami and one in Boston. Two of those games were close wins while the 3rd one was 33 point blow out win.  The Heat lead the Celtics 4-2 all time in playoff series wins.  They have played in 2 of the last 3 Eastern Conference finals and also in the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals.  They lead the Celtics 20-17 in playoff games won. 

The Celtics have to be hungry coming into this series.  Last year, the Celtics battled back from an 0-3 deficit to tie the series at 3 games each.  They they lost Game 7 on their home court to the Miami Heat.   They won the East in 2022 but lost the title to the Golden State Warriors after collapsing in the Finals.  In the 2019-20 season they also lost to the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Both teams are very different from the ones that battled in last year's ECF.  The Celtics lost Smart, Grant Williams, Rob Williams and Malcolm Brogdon and instead come into this rematch with Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday and have been a dominant team this season.  The Heat are also different in that they lost Max Strus and Gabe Vincent and they will be without Jimmy Butler who was injured in the first play-in game. They have also added their rookie Jaime Jaquez, Jr who has been playing very well for them this year.  They added Terry Rozier at the trade deadline, but he is considered week to week with a sprained neck. 

The Celtics have been off since the last day of the regular season, which was Sunday, April 14.  The starters last played on Thursday April 11.  They have had plenty of time to heal up any minor bumps and bruises.  The Heat, on the other hand, had to play 2 play-in games and last played on Friday, April 19.  After playing Philadelphia and Chicago just to make it to the 8th seed, they have not had any time to regroup or rest.

The Celtics come into the playoffs mostly healthy.  Only Luke Kornet is on the injury list with a calf injury.  He is out for this game.  The Heat are without Jimmy Butler, who sprained his MCL in the first play-in game and is expected to miss most or all of this series.  Terry Rozier has missed the last 7 games with a neck sprain and is out for this game.  He is considered week to week.  Duncan Robinson is questionable due to a back injury but he played on Sunday and is likely to play in this game.  Josh Richardson is out after having shoulder surgery. 

 

Probable Celtics Starters
PG SG SFPF C
PG:  Jrue Holiday
SG:  Derrick White
SF:  Jaylen Brown
PF:  Jayson Tatum
C:   Kristaps Porzingis

Celtics Reserves
Oshae Brissett
Sam Hauser
Al Horford
Svi Mykhailiuk
Payton Pritchard
Jordan Walsh
Jaden Springer
Xavier Tillman
Neemias Queta

2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson

Injuries/Out
Luke Kornet (calf) out

Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla


Probable Heat Starters
PGSGSFPFC
PG:  Tyler Herro
SG:  Caleb Martin
SF:   Jaime Jaquez, Jr
PF:   Nikola Jovic
C:    Bam Adebayo 

Heat Reserves
Thomas Bryant
Haywood Highsmith
Kevin Love
Patty Mills
Duncan Robinson
Orlando Robinson
Delon Wright

Out/Injuries
Jimmy Butler (MCL) out
Josh Richardson (shoulder) out
Duncan Robinson (back) questionable
Terry Rozier III (neck) out

Two Way Players
Jamal Cain
Cole Swider
Alondes Williams

Head Coach
Erik Spoelstra

Key Matchups
vs
Jrue Holiday vs Tyler Herro
With Jimmy Butler out, Herro is the Heat's best scorer.  He is averaging 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game.  He is shooting 44.1% from the field and 39.6% from beyond the arc.  In 3 games against the Celtics this season, he averaged 23.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game while shooting 49.1% from the field and 41.2% from beyond the arc.  The Celtics need to especially stay with him on the perimeter.

vs
Kristaps Porzingis vs Bam Adebayo
While Herro may be the Heat's best scorer, Adebayo is their best player.  He is averaging 19.3 points 10.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.1 steals per game.  He is shooting 52.1% from the field and 35.7% from beyond the arc.  In 3 games against the Celtics this season, he averaged 22.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 45.5% from the field with no 3 pointers.  While he is capable of hitting 3's he does most of his scoring in the paint or midrange and is a good rebounder. 

Honorable Mention
Jaylen Brown vs Jaime Jaquez, Jr
With Butler out, the Heat will depend on their rookie, Jaime Jaquez, Jr to pick up the slack in his absence.  He has been playing very well and is averaging 11.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1 steal per game.  He is shooting 48.9% from the field and 32.2% from beyond thee arc.  In the play-in win over the Bulls, he finished with 21 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists.  He didn't play very well in his 2 games against the Celtics this season, averaging 3 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, while shooting 25% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. 

Keys to the Game
Defense - Defense is always the biggest key to winning every game, and it gets even more important in the playoffs.  They need to make defense a priority in each and every game.  The Celtics were 2nd in the regular season with a defensive rating of 110.6.  But, the Heat were also a good defensive team with a defensive rating of 111.5, 5th in the league.  The Heat have been successful at times with a zone defense and the Celtics need to be ready for it and be able to score on it.  The team that plays the toughest defense will likely get the win in this one. In last year's ECF, the Celtics allowed Caleb Martin, a 9.6 points per game player, who shot 35% from 3 in the regular season to average 19.3points on 48.9% shooting from 3.  The Celtics can't let a player like that get hot in this series.  They have to play tough defense on every Heat player. 

Rebound - As with defense, rebounding will always be a key to winning.  Much of rebounding is effort and hustle and when the Celtics put out that extra effort to grab rebounds, it usually translates to other areas of the game as well.  The Celtics are 2nd with 46.3 rebounds per game while the Heat are 26th with 42.3 rebounds per game.  The Celtics have to work harder on the boards than the Heat and win the rebounding battle if they want to win this game. They especially need to grab more offensive rebounds.

Be Aggressive - The Celtics need to be the more aggressive team. They have to be more aggressive in going after loose balls, in grabbing rebounds, in defending, and in going to the basket.  The Heat are proud of having a team of "dogs" who hustle and scrap for everything.  The Celtics need to hustle and be aggressive for 48 minutes and "out-dog" the Heat.  They can win a lot of games by playing harder than their opponents and they can lose a lot of games by allowing their opponents to be the team that plays harder. 

Urgency and Effort - These are keys to winning most games.  If they play with urgency and put out extra effort, they have a good chance of winning the game.  The Heat often win their games by playing harder than their opponents.  The Celtics have to be the team that plays harder and is more aggressive and plays with more urgency.   They can't expect to win this game because they have the best record or because they won the 3 games between them in the regular season.  They have to win it by putting in more effort than the Heat.

Stay Focused - The Celtics have to stay focused and play as a team. The Heat like to muddy up games and get their opponents to lose their focus by giving hard fouls and getting into opponents' heads.  The Celtics will have to stay focused on playing their game, on grabbing rebounds, on taking good shots and on playing tough defense.  They can't let the Heat's style of play frustrate them. 

X-Factors
Home Court - The Celtics fought all season to have the best record in the league and to have home court throughout the playoffs.  The Garden should be loud and rowdy and should give the Celtics a boost.  They only lost 4 games all season at home and they need to keep that mindset throughout the playoffs.  The Heat will have distractions of travel and playing in front of a very hostile crowd and the Celtics need to take advantage of that.

Coaching - Erik Spoelstra is thought by many to be the best coach in the league.  He can be expected to come up with a wrinkle or two to surprise the Celtics and try to give the Heat an advantage.  He has coached 2 championship teams,  has taken his teams to 6 finals, and his teams have won 6 Eastern Conference Championships.  He definitely has the experience factor on his side.  It is just Joe Mazzulla's 2nd season as a head coach, but he has done a very good job this season and hopefully can counter whatever surprises Spoelstra has in store for him. 

Rust vs Rest - The Celtics have not played a game in a whole week.  The starters haven't played in a game since April 11.  While that has given them the opportunity to rest up and to heal any minor bumps and bruises that were bothering them, such as Jaylen Brown's hand and Jayson Tatum's ankle and Jrue Holiday's ankle, the Celtics may be a little rusty out of the gate.  On the other hand, the Heat had to play 2 intense games since the Celtics last played just to make the playoffs.  Although one of those games cost them the services of Jimmy Butler, they may be a bit sharper coming into the game because they have continued to play. 

Officiating -Officiating is always an x-factor in every game. Every crew officiates differently. Some call it tight, others let them play. Some favor the home team. Some favor the road team. Some just make bad, head scratching calls. At times the officials have an agenda of some sort. like not giving the Celtics a single free throw for an entire game.  The Celtics need to adjust to how the refs are calling the game and not allow bad calls or no calls to take away their focus from playing the game. They must stay focused on the game and not on the officiating.

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