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Friday, February 5, 2016

"Like a Bird on a Wire..."

By JB

Like a bird on the wire,
Like a drunk in a midnight choir
I have tried in my way to be free.


"Joe Cocker sings Bird on a Wire, written by Leonard Cohen. Piano accompaniment by Leon Russell, with Chris Stainton on organ. From Mad Dogs and Englishmen, "all elements of the truth." Recorded live at the Fillmore East in New York City, March 1970."


A lot of folks in the business of watching basketball games, as well as casual fans, have accepted the cliche that Kelly Olynyk is "soft."
I reject this notion.

Just because he is a free spirit and has long hair doesn't make him unwilling to fight for victory for his team. Remember when he got elbowed in the eye, which was swollen shut and he couldn't see out of it and played the next game, like nothing happened?

From Boston.com:
"Olynyk scored a team-high 19 points, helping carry the Celtics to a crucial 100-87 victory over the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday night, all while looking like a boxer that just 
went 12 rounds in a prize fight."


Sure he doesn't have rebounding numbers like some other 7'ers, but he spends much of his time at the three point line (as one of the premier shooters in the league), or at the top of the key to initiate offense with his more than clever (he was a high school point guard) passes.
 While his defensive numbers are also among the league's elite and best on the Celtics, many folks still insist on pointing to his "Olé" defense. My contention is that he is such a foul magnet.... "hey the big white guy just checked in, we can fill our foul quotas.".... he has to try to defend while showing space between himself and the offensive player, like kids at a teen dance at a parochial school back in the 50's.

In the NBA, you get 6 fouls in a game.... no big deal, but in hockey, you have to sit in a "penalty box" for two minutes; embarrassed and forlorn and watch all the others skate by. 

To really understand how Olynyk approaches the game of basketball, we have to look back to his Canadian culture and the effect of Hockey, the national religion (please forgive my sarcasm). 
Hockey is a game of love, born on the rivers and ponds, played under the snow covered pines, on a natural surface of ice. The purpose of the game is to play... to skate... to feel the freedom of gliding from those long strides on the glassy surface. If it were up to the players, I believe they would not even keep score. This is something for the fans who pay the money to support the game.
Goals are not scored very often and almost never
by great one on one moves, except in open ice, because of the layers of defense. In the scoring zone, goals come from clever passes to players moving without the puck to the open areas. Does that sound familiar? Is that not Olynyk's game to a "T?"
Another comparison to hockey is Kelly's leading the team (by a long margin, using the per 36 minute reference) in the +/- statistic, relatively new to basketball, but the purest hockey stat. of all.
As for being soft,  Hockey players actually do fight, not just growl, grimace and pose. Thereby, they take violence seriously. Most players will not provoke a fight, but if you try to push them around.....well, just ask Kevin Love, who almost had his arm ripped out it's socket, whether Olynyk is soft!

There is another Celtic, who always has a smile on his face. Is it coincidental that he also comes from a culture where pucks on ice are a lot more prominent than rubber on asphalt?
I am intrigued by Jonas Jerebko. I see a 6'8" athletic marvel who has yet to find his game. From what I have observed; he can defend adequately three positions, pass on the move, drive to the basket with force and control, is a good rebounder and may be one of the best shooters on the team, an asset much to be desired in Coach Steven's preferred offensive sets.

Jerebko is just settling in to the rotation and getting more minutes, as his game is developing.

From BostonGlobe.com:    "Over those first 37 games, Jerebko averaged 12.9 minutes and shot just 35.8 percent from the field and 39.4 percent on 3-pointers while averaging 3.1 points.Over the last 12 games, he is averaging 16.9 minutes, shooting 50 percent overall and a blistering 52.2 percent on 3-pointers"


Just like his pal Kelly, whose joie de vivre, he shares, I hear a lot of criticism, questioning of his place on the roster and rotation, while wunderkind, Jordan Mickey, languishes in relative obscurity, "down Maine," in the "D" league..
My best prognotication is that he will become a valued asset, depending on how fast he sheds his hockey mentality and learns just what his basketball strengths are.
I love his hustle and enthusiasm and think he has all the skills.



I suppose for all of the reasons detailed above, regarding Olynyk, Jerebko has also been labelled soft. Well, I'd be careful about that monicker.
Swedes are known to be easy going and gentle by nature, but they are also as tough as old boot leather, when riled or defending their turf. As I see it; Jonas is "farm strong," afraid of nothing and more than willing to mix it up as the situation arises.

For me, the game doesn't even start until Olynyk comes off the bench; I love his creativity and "élan" and the team usually kicks it up a notch when he and Smart and Turner enter the game.

Will Jerebco continue to improve and thereby have his playing time increased? I hope so, as these "blush brothers" as I call them, have got into my heart and as intriguing as Jordan Mickey is, he's still very young and getting experience in an area where he can excel is probably much better for his ultimate development, than sitting on the bench getting scrap minutes in blowouts.

Individual Player +/- Statistics
PlayerTeam+/-+/- Per Game+/- Per 36 Min
31Kelly OlynykBOS1893.96.8
34Isaiah ThomasBOS1853.84.2
36Jae CrowderBOS1743.64
40Avery BradleyBOS1683.84.2
46Jared SullingerBOS1322.84.2
59Amir JohnsonBOS1002.23.3
61Marcus SmartBOS973.54.6
75Evan TurnerBOS691.41.9
127Jonas JerebkoBOS250.51.4
211Terry RozierBOS-8-0.4-2.7
250Tyler ZellerBOS-22-0.7-2.9
264James YoungBOS-28-1.4-6.3
278R.J. HunterBOS-31-1.3-4.5
294David LeeBOS-40-1.3-3.1



[Discuss on CG Forums!]






6 comments:

  1. I thought we were talking about Dave Cowens there for a moment ;)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Did Dave ever play with one eye swollen shut?

    There is "farm tough" and there is hockey player tough. 😏

    ReplyDelete
  3. Good morning ...been out of town a few days. I thought I might comment

    Let me say a couple of things in brevity on your statistical chart above.

    The basic +/- stat, and the subsequent advanced stats now emanating from this base stat are in my opinion (and in some others opinion) a piece of worthless crap that everyone seems to love but not fully understand. I am not knocking you as most people/fans/writers/news media in the NBA are butt-deep in statistics they don't fully understand so don't take my comments personally.

    Even the basic +/- stat has too many variables to really tell you anything. There is a term called Hast Generalization and I offer a wiki definition below.

    "Hasty generalization is an informal fallacy of faulty generalization by reaching an inductive generalization based on insufficient evidence—essentially making a hasty conclusion without considering all of the variables. In statistics, it may involve basing broad conclusions regarding the statistics of a survey from a small sample group that fails to sufficiently represent an entire population.[1] Its opposite fallacy is called slothful induction, or denying a reasonable conclusion of an inductive argument (e.g. "it was just a coincidence").

    I ALSO OFFER ..you a link to this article

    http://regressing.deadspin.com/just-what-the-hell-is-real-plus-minus-espns-new-nba-s-1560361469

    It gives you some idea of the absolute lunacy (IMO) of the overuse of advanced stats in the NBA.

    I finally offer you offer this quote in terms of your chart. I used it often in my career in analyzing data.

    "Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.".....Albert Einstein

    KO soft? Soft on rebounding YES!!! Soft in a hockey fight? I have no idea as I have never seem him fight. Playing thru pain? (Like a sore swollen black eye)? It appears he can tolerate some pain. I guess that can, in some regards, qualify as not being soft.

    Let's just say KO is NOT "a 7ft banger" who is going to clean the glass for you on the boards. Instead he is the new 7ft NBA stretch the floor "big guy".

    Is that a good thing? I guess for some people it is. When he hits those 3 point shots at a high % then it is effective for the team ...when he disappears and seems to float and flitter about and NOT rebounding ....then not so much value IMO.

    If he would average more than 4.4 rebounds a game and develop some real McHale like post up moves - then I could sit on the wire and sing his praises ...until then ..

    Soft is just a word with many meanings in respect to KO. He has good skill sets and good work ethic as you say. Is it enough for sustained value and and success in the NBA as a starter or bench player? I don't know - define success? and down the rabbit hole we go.

    Jonas? Jerebko? If he has a middle name that doesn't start with J then it must start with "A" for"Average". That's all I see so far. Soft Swede? Look at his stats - those look soft to me - but when I think of "Soft Swede I think of the female kind - and those are usually good things.

    Keep writing !!! and thanks for the article.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just another great comment PO, better than the article really.

      If there's something that I learned about C's fans a long time ago its that we way over value our own players, it's an epidemic.

      Delete
    2. thx forever-green...

      I over value my ability my ability to be productive ...my wife said so.

      Delete
  4. Lol!
    Yes, Po, your disdain for the "absolute lunacy (IMO) of the overuse of advanced stats in the NBA," is an element that bothers me also... I want my sports simple... If I can't understand how a stat is calculated, I'm not interested. I don't even know what "per" is and I hear it everywhere.
    On the other hand +/- is pretty clear and while you say it "has too many variables to really tell you anything," it does help cover the ground between say; Carmelo Anthony and Jae Crowder, if one wanted some indication of value to his team.....

    ....and forever-green, sorry you didn't care for my piece.... it was approached in a pretty light hearted way and I guess my humor doesn't appeal to all (or very many, to be honest). I wasn't really trying to "value" these players, as much as try to explain (yes, humorously) why they might not be playing at full potential. Of course I did throw in a few opinions, and who knows.... the wind blows East, the wind blows West....

    Thanks for reading it anyway...

    ReplyDelete

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