SQ14 #26 The Costs of Keeping the Big Three Window Open

In the summer of 2007 when the New Big Three (I prefer to keep the Big Three appellation reserved for Bird, McHale, and Parrish) were assembled, most observers acknowledged that this collection of All-Stars were past their prime and there was limited opportunity to compete for the NBA championship.  The most widely mentioned estimate of the length of that window was three years.  The magical success of that first season and the return of the Championship to Boston after decades of absence, fans and management alike an almost unquenchable thirst for more, and more, and more. 

Flash forward to the presumed end of that window and there had only been a “yes, but” and “if only” series of disappointments following that first exhilarating season.  In 2009 Kevin Garnett’s knee sprain (eventually a surgery to remove a large bone spur) kept him out of the entire post season allowing Dwight Howard to reach his high water mark of making the NBA Finals with Orlando.  In 2010, leading the series 3-2 in the Finals, the Celtics lose Kendrick Perkins when both Kobe and Andrew Bynum come down on him as Perkins lands after securing a rebound.  The severe knee sprain proves to be a torn ACL and Kendrick misses the last two games of the Finals and never fully recovers before being traded to OKC for Jeff Green and Nenad Krystic in 2011. 

But we were soooo close, missed it by thhaaat much, just wait until next year!  Danny Ainge, and I suppose the majority of we the Celtic Nation, refused to believe the window was closed, and Ainge acted accordingly.  With the salaries of the New Big Three consuming almost all of the salary cap and with limited draft picks left after the expenditure acquiring Garnett and Allen, for three years Danny had invested his few available resources to supplement the contenders with serviceable veteran role players.  After the near misses in 2009 and 2010, he once again tried to prop up the support group of his All-Stars who were growing ever longer in the tooth. 

The problem was then, and ever increasingly became, that those stop-gap veterans were only good for a year or two (at most) and there was little or nothing in the development pipeline to inject new blood and talent into the organization.  In 2011 the trend continued.  Perkins was traded for Green & Krystic but his replacements Shaq, Jermaine O’Neal, and Nenad Krystic were all too old and/or too broken to man the position.  Garnett moved over to center and Rondo emerged as a legitimate member of the now Big Four.  Then Dwane Wade pulls Rondo down in the Conference Semifinals dislocating Rajon’s elbow and effectively ending the Celtics postseason run.  Almost . . ., nearly . . ., but for the rotten luck . . . .

More patchwork by Ainge in the off season, rinse and repeat.  In 2012 there weren’t any huge gotcha’s (well other than Avery Bradley’s shoulders dropping him out of the playoffs) to explain losing in the Conference Finals to the Heat.  The Celtics were up 3-2 and just couldn’t close it out against the Miami LeBron’s.  It looked like a changing of the guard, Boston got another year older and LeBron and his hand-picked Glam Three were finally playing like they were assembled to perform.  Avery Bradley had actually outperformed Ray Allen the latter half of the season and Ray bolted to Miami that summer. 

Still Danny was only getting discount offers for his remaining aging stars and he slapped on the bandaids and trotted (O.K. perhaps gently walked) out his greybeards for yet another lap in 2012-13.  This time the Celtics lost some of everything:  Sully went down and under the surgeon’s knife, ditto for Rondo and Barbosa, Darko went home to mama.  The grizzled vets played long minutes and looked slower and slower.  The Celtics hit the playoffs a tired and dispirited group and bowed out in the first round to the Knicks. 

The three year window had been stretched into a six year window and the facade was crumbling.  The only long-term assets added in six years were three draft picks (Bradley, Sullinger, and Olynyk), and the only truly serviceable vets added in the last five were Brandon Bass (received in exchange for Big Baby Davis), Courtney Lee, and Jeff Green.  Unfortunately, all the others, and there were a lot, were either washed up, stove in, and/or flakes.

So, the truth is that we have been paying a price for keeping the window propped open for five years, and at least the last two or three were questionable decisions.  I’m not, repeat not, saying that Danny had better paths to take or better options.  I believe that I, and most of the Boston fan(atics), were on board with extending the window, and with most of the pickups (or at least “O.K., maybe that’ll work”).   Given the incredible haul Ainge pried out of the Russian billionaire, it is pretty hard to say he should have pulled the trigger sooner on rebuilding.  I personally think that if he could have gotten that same offer in 2011, he would have taken it, and I, for one, would have been quite satisfied to call it a campaign and gear up for the next one.  Obviously those of you that wanted Garnett and Pierce to retire in Green would differ, just as you have bemoaned the Brooklyn deal last summer.

Two final notes.  The Brandon Bass and Courtney Lee acquisitions made perfect sense to boost the supporting cast for the aging Celtics.  Once the team was blown up, those players made no sense as neither had star potential and their usefulness as supporting pieces flipped to the negative.  Neither would be as good in their roles by the time the Celtics were once again competing for titles; and, in the meantime, each would hamper the development of players that would nave to be mainstays on any future contender.  Shedding Courtney Lee’s salary in order to stay below the Luxury Cap cost Boston a second round pick in 2016.  It remains to be seen if Bass can be moved or his contract will just be allowed to expire next summer.

So in addition to five years of signing end-of-the-road rental vets rather than developing youth, we are now paying the bill to shed the holdovers.  I’m not complaining, I very much enjoyed the run; but the last few years of watching my heroes progressively slowed by Father Time has been excruciating.  And the fact that we are still paying the dues for keeping the window open for six rather than three years is frustrating.  Now that Boston is launching into the post-PGA era, it is galling to have the remnants hindering the rebuild.

I realize that this missive has dragged on far longer than my usual offerings.  It tells a lengthy story (six years and counting) of a long and winding road.  Most is factual, some is surmision.  If you are still with me, thank you forbearance, and I commend you for your persistence.  I’ve added some material below so you can make your own judgments.

Listed are the significant acquisitions over the last four years of the window, and the drafts over the last six years.  Peruse the lists and tell me what veteran role players held any future value.  Look over the draft picks and notice that Bradley was the only pick before 2012 that wasn’t four (or more) year player (presumably to help right away).

2009-10
Rasheed Wallace, Marquis Daniels, Michael Finlely
2010-11
Shaquille O’Neal, Jermaine O’Neal, Carlos Arroyo, Troy Murphy
2011-12
Brandon Bass, Mickael Pietrus, Keyon Dooling, Chris Wilcox
2012-13
Darko Milicic, Courtney Lee, Leandro Barbosa, Jason Collins, Jason Terry

2008   30 J. R. Giddens,  60 Semih Erden
2009   1st to Minnesota in Garnett trade,  58 Lester Hudson
2010   19 Avery Bradley,  52 Luke Harangody
2011   25 MarShon Brooks (JuJuan Johnson via Nets), 55 E’Twaun Moore
2012   21 Jared Sullinger, 22 Fab Melo, 51 Kris Joseph
2013   16 Lucas Nogueira (Kelly Olynyk via Mavericks), 45 to Blazers in Courtney Lee acquisition
2016   2nd round pick given up in 2014 Courtney Lee trade to Grizzlies

Just 39 days to the opening of training camp.[Discuss on CG Forums!]