SQ14 #12 The 2.9 Scheme is Driving Change

Think of this as the new math for the emerging NBA:
24 - 2.9 = 3 + smarts
The twenty-four second clock combined with the 2.9 seconds defenders can loiter in the lane equals a need for an offense that leverages the three-point shot and smart ball movement.  Isolation plays, and even pick-and-roll's, leave the ball handler still facing layers of defenders.  The evolving solution is to flex the collapsing defense until it breaks (either unable to shift quickly enough or a breakdown of individual responsibilities).

I always enjoy reading Zack Lowe’s articles.  Even when I disagree, He prompts me to ponder--something I strive mightily for in my own writing. I ran across this article from 2013 (http://grantland.com/features/packing-paint-nba-defensive-strategy-forcing-coaches-rethink-their-offense/) that dovetails nicely with my topic for today--playing smart, what it means as a player and as a team.  Even as I begin this effort I see ripples spreading that almost certainly guarantee that this will become more than just one piece.  The problem is that I don’t see an obvious breaking place(s), we’ll just have to see as it unfolds.

Historically the Boston Celtics under Red Auerbach out thought the rest of the league.  They out ran and out played the other teams also, but that was just more elements of out thinking opponents.  They introduced the defensive center and the sixth man, they perfected the outlet pass and fast break, and the honed concepts of role player and diversified offense until they were scalpels that dissected most challengers. 

Often it was hard to tell who the Celtics’ stars were by just looking at the box score.  Until Larry Bird I don’t think they had anyone near the league lead in points.  Their excellence, and seemingly a secret even though you could see it in action in every game, was a system that moved and spread the ball so that the defenders could never load up to stop the principal attack, there wasn’t one.  Instead it was a many-headed hydra and a system that exploited mismatches and constantly maneuvered for an even more-open shot.  They pushed the ball down before you could get your defense set, and even when you did they pushed, pull, and twisted your alignment until some solid (not unstoppable, not overwhelming) shooter got a high-percentage open look.  Some of my favorite memories are of Boston beating Philadelphia and their “star” players.  In the latter half of the 20th century it seemed each decade brought a new wave of Celtic-type (and we’ll come back to that) players that stepped into the Boston system and ran, exploited, and manipulated their opponents into a frustrated defeat.  Well, until the 90’s but I won’t go there.

For twenty years Boston thrived on getting simple shots, closer and more open, that almost seemed a mockery of their opponents’ degree-of-difficulty highlights and dazzling one-on-one isolations.  Then the three-point shot altered the equation.  Boston adapted to the new weapon by blending in a devastating inside-out, or outside-in, attack with their running and sharing team attack.  Now outlawing the hand check and relaxing the anti-zone rules have once again changed the half-court dynamics.  Not surprisingly, Boston was once again a leader in adapting; under Tom Thibodeaux‘s barking guidance, Doc Rivers and the new Big-Three and their merry band threw up a defense where the weak side defenders slid near or into the lane, thus overloading the strong side and throwing up a gauntlet of defenders to thwart ball penetration.  As Lowe explains:

“It’s on almost every locker-room whiteboard, and it’s shorthand slang among NBA players and coaches. But one of the wonkiest phrases in the league has yet to penetrate public discourse about the NBA: “to 2.9.” Coaches want players away from the ball “to 2.9″ on defense, and the meaning is simple: Stay in the paint for as long as possible without committing a defensive three-second violation. It’s a tenet that has swept across the league during the last few seasons in the form of ultra-aggressive help defense, a sea change that has inspired a slower but perhaps more important evolution in the way NBA teams approach offense.” 

Thibodeaux moved on to Chicago but the principles remained a Boston staple (though markedly less effective after the turnover last summer and the influx of new players).  The parallels between warfare and sports is oft noted, and in the natural course of events the new defensive tenets are eliciting changes in offensive approaches.  Lowe’s article offers:

“Thibodeau didn’t invent this system, and he’s loath to take any public credit for it, but coaches, scouts, and executives all over the league agree he was the first coach to stretch the limits of the NBA’s newish defensive three-second rule and flood the strong side with hybrid man/zone defenses.1 Other coaches have copied that style, and smart offenses over the last two seasons — and especially this season — have had to adapt. The evolution will have long-lasting consequences on multiple fronts — on the league’s entertainment value, the importance of smart coaching, and the sorts of players that GMs seek out in the draft and via free agency.”

That last clause is part of the reason that Ainge couldn’t move Brandon Bass for even a Traded Player Exception.  Tomorrow I examine how each of our current players “fits the bill” and why I’m bullish on the Celtics course and progress.  It also plays into the choice of Brad Stevens, and his 6-year contract, as coach. 

Only 53 days until training camp. [Discuss on CG Forums!]