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Tuesday, May 24, 2016

More Random Thoughts on the State of the Off Season

 From past years, we all pretty much know that mock drafts are an exercise in futility.  I don't recall a single mock last season that predicted that the Celtics would take Terry Rozier.   Even at the top when there are two consensus top picks things get dicey.  Last season Karl Anthony Townes and Jahlil Okafor were the consensus top picks but the Lakers shook things up by taking D'Angelo Russell with the second pick, allowing Okafor to drop to the third pick. 



Speaking of Okafor,  there are a lot of rumors floating around that have the Sixers looking to trade one of their big men.  Last year they started Nerlens Noel and Okafor but things didn't always gel between those two on the court and there was a lot of talk about teams making offers for Okafor.  This season it will get a bit more muddy as they expect Joel Embiid to finally be healthy and ready to contribute. 

There is no question that Embiid is a very intriguing player.  If he can stay healthy, he has the potential to be a star.  That potentially leaves Philly with an extra big, whether it be Noel, Embiid or Okafor.  I say potentially because they may decide to keep all 3 with two of them starting and one coming off the bench.   But, for now,  there are articles cropping up everywhere with potential trades between Boston and Philly for one of their young bigs. 

It seems as though it's been already decided that Simmons and Ingram will go one and two in the draft.  But as I said above,  the projections don't always match up with the reality.  I'll be taking a look around the mocks to see where they see the Celtics going with their 3 first round picks and then possibly another time the 5 second round picks which are totally a question mark when it comes to predicting them.

Last season everyone said that Danny would never make all 4 picks and that he had to trade at least a couple of them.  But, in spite of trying to trade way too much to get Justise Winslow, who went to the Heat, he wasn't able to make a trade.  As the old saying goes,  it takes two to tango, and no one was willing to trade with Danny in spite of him seemingly offering to over pay for a higher pick. 

Danny ended up making all 4 picks with 3 remaining on the roster and Marcus Thornton splitting the season between Australia and the Red Claws.   Although we didn't get to see much of Jordan Mickey,  I'm pretty much sold on his potential.  I'd love to see him get more of a chance to play with the Celtics this season.  I also thought that Rozier and Hunter showed potential in spurts this past season.   It will be interesting to see if Danny keeps them or uses them in a trade.

One player that I think has not showed anything in his two seasons with the Celtics is James Young.  In two years, he hasn't shown much improvement on either end of the court.  I don't see Danny keeping him another season in hopes to see some improvement in spite of consistently telling reporters that the Celtics are very happy with his development.

This year, Danny has not 4 but 8 picks with 3 in the first round and 5 in the second round.  It would be very surprising to see him make all 8 picks.  He may make some to stash in Europe for a year or so.  The Celtics still have Colton Iverson playing overseas from a couple of years ago.  He comes back to play in the Summer League and then goes back to Europe.   If he can't trade the picks for value he may follow that route with a few of this year's picks.

There is no risk with second round picks since they aren't guaranteed salary.  The 31st and 35th picks may be Danny's most valuable aside from the 3rd pick.   Danny can take a flyer on all of them if he wants and have them play in Europe.  He can trade all of them or trade some and keep a couple.  With that many picks,  there are a lot of scenarios that could play out.  But,  I'm pretty sure he's not going to want to keep all 8 players.  I can see him packaging several to either move up in the draft or for a veteran player who can help the team.

It seems slow right now, but things will start moving pretty quickly soon.  With the draft coming up  on June 28th and free agency starting July 1,  things could get very busy in about a month.  Until then, there will be workouts and rumors - lots and lots of rumors.  Then July 2-18 will be Summer League which should be interesting if the Celtics do make any of their 8 picks along with seeing last year's rookies.   Get ready for an up and down ride the rest of the off season.  

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