Much has been made
of the even, if low, quality of the Celtics roster. While this
emphasizes the lack of star quality, it also notes that there are few
really bad players on the team (at least last years roster in May). Omitting the outliers James Young and Gerald Wallace, the range of PER and VORP
were quite small, if you are trying to back up the eye test with
statistics. Looking this up it occurred to me that the Value Over
Replacement Player was based on mythical “average” NBA
replacement. For our discussion today, I'd like you to consider a
completely made-up stat, VOARP or Value Over Actual Replacement
Player. My point is this, if you consider quality of second-teamer's,
the drop off for the Celtics is minimal compared to Cleveland or any
other team with a top-heavy starting five backed up with cheap (often
vet min) role players bought with the dregs of the available salary
after the big dogs eat their fill. With that disparity of talent
level comes a huge dip in performance—think Dellavedova subbing in
for Kyrie Irving, or Mike Miller replacing LeBron.
So, how can the
Celtics take advantage of this drop-off; how can they turn the
disadvantage of mid-level mediocrity into a weapon? The obvious
answer seems to be pace, and space. If you turn the game into a
track meet, then the stars are forced to play tired with long
minutes, or to play fewer minutes and fill in the playing time with
their sub par replacements. I feel the need, the need for speed—or
as Tommy would say “Run baby, run!” Not only force the stars to
hustle back on defense, but spread the floor and move the ball,
forcing those big name players to constantly move, fight around
screens, close out to the 3-point line, and reverse directions. I
get tired just writing about it. Also with the additional energy
expenditures, our subs play more of the game against their subs, and
our subs are better!
There are other
ancillary benefits. More of our offense is executing against a
defense still in transition without having had time to set up. Playing
time is naturally distributed more evenly, keeping more players happy
(and fresh), preventing some of the injury risks due to overuse and
exhaustion, and hedging against the deleterious effect of
back-to-back's and 4-in5 night stretches. For Popovich's Spurs it is
about easing the grind on his aging crew; for Stevens' Celtics it's
about motivation, development, leveraging a potential disadvantage
into an edge, and, yes, a necessity. Oh yeah, there is the fact that
layups and open shots are higher percentage shots than hurried or
hand-in-the-face fall-away jumpers.
Speaking on the
minutes distribution, only one returning Celtic averaged more than 30
minutes per game. In addition to Bradley's 31.5, seven players
averaged between 21 and 28. (Of the departed players Green and Rondo
played 33.1 and 31.8 respectively, and three more averaged between 20
and 24.) Contrast that with a more typical NBA team where the
starters get 35+ and the reserves get less than 15.
Brad Stevens already
has a suitable MPG distribution for pushing the ball, and he and
Ainge have already indicated a desire to do so. There have been
several problems: like no basketball--as rebounding has been an
ongoing issue and the lack of point guard push—Rondo coming back
from surgery, Smart's severe ankle sprain that hindered him all
season, Thomas added mid-season and hurt almost immediately; Turner
who had no interest in rushing down court; and Pressey who was most
willing and effective of all at pushing the ball—but played sparingly and is now gone.
Hopefully this year will be much better. Smart whose ankle has
healed and appeared more confident and aggressive in Summer League,
Isaiah Thomas whose game lends itself to speed and attacking the
bucket, and Rozier whose Summer League action showed every indication of driving the ball up
court although his handle could use some tightening, all show signs
of willingness and capability to make this happen (although Turner
will still not be a fast break guard). New additions Amir and Lee
will help the rebounding deficit and while neither will be racing up
court, either could follow the break for the free throw area jumper
as the drag on the secondary break.
Every season since
Ainge arrived as GM, there has been a stated desire to push the ball,
even after the aging New Big Three arrived. So far the execution
(and commitment?) has been totally lacking. It just makes too much
sense for that lack to continue. It is my fervent hope that
rebounders immediately look up court for the outlet and the C's look
to run, even after made shots or free throws.
Tomorrow I'll talk
about a favorite issue and pastime of mine, watching the first two
steps, which I consider a critical aspect of pushing the ball. 64 days to camp.
Another excellent article. Talking about making the outlet pass immediately and running takes me back to the Celtics teams of yore. We have no stars at the moment but we have several young players who have the potential to become stars who may emerge as such in any given season.
ReplyDeleteI agree that the Celtics need to run to take advantage of their depth and it seems that with Smart, Rozier, and Thomas they have the PG's who can do just that. We also have bigs who can run the floor with them. Not much as been said about Zeller, but he's one of the quickest centers up the floor in the league. I see good things coming this season.
Good piece. I can see the depth working like Red's thoughts on the 6th man. When the subs come in you immediately have an advantage on the other team. Will be interesting to see how it works out.
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