MENU

Monday, September 15, 2014

SQ14 #51 Roster Slots and The Philly Pick(s)

Since this is a conditional pick, Boston won’t get their first round pick unless it is non-lottery.  So best case for a first is the 15th pick.  On the other hand if Philadelphia doesn’t make the playoffs, the Celtics get Philly’s next two second round picks.  Now many prognosticators feel the 76er’s will be the worst team in the league, by a wide margin.  If this is true, then Boston will get the 31st pick in the 2015 draft. 

In recent history teams have often preferred an early second round pick over a late first round pick due to the rookie salary implication.  While I certainly would prefer a 15th to the 31st plus whatever the 2016 Philadelphia finish brings, the tradeoff is not too bad.  Since it will almost certainly be the second rounder’s and this year Boston has three (maybe four if Washington finishes with a top ten record) picks, the appeal of draft-and-stash will be very strong.

Boston has several expiring contracts and it is unlikely that many will be retained.  Rondo, perhaps, but probably not Joel Anthony, Brandon Bass, or Marcus Thornton.  Also there is Jeff Green, who may or may not exercise his player option.  You know for certain that Danny Ainge will be looking for roster consolidation, vets without a future on the Celtics, and, of course, a fireworks trades; but as we have seen it is a tough climate for moves.  We also know that with the cap room cleared by expiring contracts, Ainge is hoping to find the big kahuna in free agency.  Unfortunately there are no obvious candidates that will both be available and willing to join the Green, but things change and the harmonious marriage between star and team today is the disgruntled relationship of tomorrow.

Let’s say, for discussion’s sake, that Rondo is retained and some mid-to-high level free agent is acquired.  This leaves only two open roster slots for the three or four draft picks.  Now I am also sure that Danny will be looking at trading two picks for one higher pick, but if that doesn’t materialize then drafting a player to keep overseas for a year or two is going to be very appealing--and that is a much more probable scenario for a second round pick than a first (although San Antonio has made a decade of success out of draft-and-stash picks in the high twenties, which is the most probable outcome for the 2015 Clippers pick.)

For years Ainge has been in the mode of trying to get immediate help for his aging core.  During that time I often yearned for foreign players who would not come over for a year or three, but recognized that Danny was always forced into the “catch up” game.  Now for the first time in a decade I can see the possibility for, and benefit of, a “Pay it Forward” strategy.  I hated that we lacked second round picks this past draft.  I look forward to seeing how Danny is able to use the second round picks he has accumulated. 

It is likely that for the next several years Boston will have more draft picks than available roster slots.  This past year a number of bloggers (short-sighted ones in my opinion) have urged shedding picks in an effort to move Gerald Wallace, acquire middling talents, move up one or two draft positions, corner the market on Doritos, just do something!  And yet, there’s Danny Ainge, holding his cards close to his chest, patiently waiting for a leveraged (buy low, flip and even for an even plus a pick, even swap an unused asset for a TPE) move.  I think Ainge will embrace the stashing of second round picks to harvest appreciated assets on a rookie contract.

Only 13 more days until training camp. [Discuss on CG Forums!]

2 comments:

  1. Anonymous3:21 PM

    Great article!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Agreed. Great article with lots to think about.

    ReplyDelete

This blog does not allow anonymous comments.