This is a post by Derrenmatts from over on Celtics Green forums. I wanted to share it here because it's a great post and maybe it will entice you to come over to the CG forums and join in the discussion. Here's Derren's post. ---------------------------------------------------------------
I'm not going to look over out West at the Lakers, or the
Thunder, or whoever else might emerge from that conference. I'm
squaring my eyes on our Eastern conference and looking right at the
Heat. They are the early favorites to win the 2013 NBA championship.
had a good offseason and improved their roster -- but so did we. Ainge
somehow worked his magic to keep the core of Garnett, Pierce, and Rajon
together, and surround them with good veteran talent, as well as young
pieces who can make an impact sooner or later.
I wanted to stack us up side by side with the Heat and see where we stand from a roster standpoint. Here's what may be the active 12-man roster for both teams:
PG: MIA: Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole BOS: Rajon Rondo, Jason Terry
SG: MIA: Dwayne Wade, Ray Allen BOS: Avery Bradley, Courtney Lee
SF: MIA: Lebron James, Shane Battier, Mike Miller BOS: Paul PIerce, Jeff Green
PF: MIA: Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem, Rashard Lewis BOS: Brandon Bass, Chris Wilcox, Jared Sullinger
C: MIA: Joel Anthony, Dexter Pittman BOS: Kevin Garnett, Darko Milicic, Jason Collins
Battle: We clearly win the PG battle. Not only does Rajon trump
Chalmers, but Jason Terry also beats out Norris Cole. I remember Eric
Spoelstra saying its difficult to game plan against Rondo because he's so
hard to contain and figure out. Well, I expect Rajon to give Spoelstra
more headaches this season with the added weapons Ainge has surrounded
Shooting Guard Battle: At the 2 guard, of course the
Heat have the edge, since D-Wade is still regarded as an upper echelon
star player (possibly still a superstar). But Avery Bradley guards Wade
as well as any defensive individual can, so I'd like to see how this
match up plays out. Ray Allen is the primary backup for Wade, but he is
basically a 3 point specialist, and can be hot or cold. At this moment,
we just have Courtney Lee, but he is a 2 dimensional player who can
play both offense and defense (and he's a good three point shooter as
well). Miami has the edge at the starting 2, while we have the better
Small Forward Battle: Again, the Heat have the edge here.
Lebron James is arguably the best player in the NBA, and will go down
as a top 10 player of all-time. We have Paul Pierce, who, in his own
right, is also a big time player, but Lebron wins the matchup overall.
At the backup, they send out Battier and Miller, who again are limited
players who mostly have specific roles (Battier more for his defense,
Miller more for his 3 pointers). On the other hand, we send out Jeff
Green, who can do a bit of everything -- a jack of all trades. Again,
the Heat win the starting battle, while we win the backup battle.
Forward Battle: Chris Bosh vs. Brandon Bass. By name recognition, Bosh
wins hands down. But the battle is not as lopsided as one may think.
Yes, Bosh still gives the Heat the edge, but Brandon emerged in last
year's playoffs, and will continue to look to leave his mark and make a
name for himself. Rashard Lewis and Udonis Haslem round out the backups,
and I think its a wash when we counter them with Chris Wilcox and Jared
Sullinger (yep, I'm throwing Sullinger out there to the wolves, and
know he'll survive). But overall, the edge goes to the Heat.
Battle: Kevin Garnett has re-energized his career (or at least is
prolonging retirement) with the move to Center. He wins the battle over
Joel Anthony any day of the week, and is arguably one of the top 5
Centers in the NBA (if he continues to play like he did in last year's
playoffs, where he averaged 19 ppg, 10.3 rpg, and a steal and a block
per game). MIA doesn't have much depth at the 5, with possible youngster
Dexter Pittman backing up Anthony. We may not have big time players
either, but Darko Milicic (who I think will have a surprising year) and
Jared Collins give us better depth.
Summary: We are
stronger at the Point and Center, while they are stronger at SG, SF, and
PF. But we have better depth and talent off the bench, and this might
prove to be the difference maker.
The Heat will rely heavily on
their Big 3, and fortunately for them, their Big 3 might be able to
shoulder the load and carry the team to another title, as long as their
bench gives just enough to help out.
For us, our shot at the
title will be a total team effort. Garnett, Pierce, and Rajon will not
be able to carry the team. But Ainge did a magnificent job of
reinforcing the foundation, and building up solid support beams for us
to have a good shot at contending this season.
We may not be Las
Vegas' choice to upset the Heat, but as the regular season plays out, I
think we will prove ourselves as a true contending team, and a
legitimate threat to take Miami down.
I think the Heat will keep the "Small Ball" lineup they had in the NBA Finals. They had Chalmers at point, Wade at the 2-Guard, LeBron at the Small Forward position, Shane Battier at the Power Forward, and Chris Bosh at the Center spot. With the addition of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, Mike Miller may not see as much playing time, he may even get knocked out of the Heat rotation. They let go of Ronny Turiaf so the Heat's back up frontcourt may just be Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony.
the backbone of basket teams is 1-3-5 positions. they're better at 3, but we'r much better at 1 and 5. Is Anthony an NBA player ? He's an undersized C without any offensive skills (no more than Collins)...And Rondo with Chalmers, such a mismatch. Moreover, D-Wade is getting older, he will need rest, Bosh too, he's not very tough. With them on the bench, production will drop, their backups r much weaker...Ray is just a sniper, nowadays. Of course, LBJ can play 48 min a night, which it's bad, but the minutes without the other 2 Big-3s could kill them. Ray is too 1-dimensional, and without screens...Only Haslem could set good screens 4 him, Bosh is not about screens...