Well, here is my fearless prediction. Actually, more than one prediction.
Next to nothing will happen.
Danny will try like hell to make a deal for a good pick. He'll offer giddens/walker and some others for a top ten pick. He'll find no takers. Trading for a pick lower than the top ten makes no sense, as this team needs to add more vets, not more kiddies.
The next temptation will be to reclaim posey. Offering scal and TA makes some sense, but it adds a big, multi-year contract to a team that now thinks of itself as a player in 2010. So this deal doesn’t happen either.
Next Danny will be tempted to offer someone really good to get someone really good in return. Danny is too smart to trade Ray Allen, Perk, or Rondo, primarily because he wouldn’t get equal value in return.
So who else are you gonna trade to bring in someone worthwhile? Well, you have the expiring contracts of scal and TA. That might net you something decent from a team desperate to get rid of a good player with a long contract. But again, if the contract is long, we won’t be a player next summer. So do we want to take ourselves out of the market next summer by marginally upgrading our roster today?
Then you have free agents. Sheed and/or Ariza make some sense. But can you land either by offering the full MLE, much less add both? Maybe Sheed for one year. I wouldn’t offer the full MLE to ARiza, and I doubt Danny would either. Sheed would be a nice addition, and even if we don’t get him, I say our best opportunity to improve is via free agent.
Worst case scenario, we just bring everyone back, and market it as “adding three free agents”—house, powe, & Davis. Another bad scenario would be trading ray ray, signing marbury, and then marketing marbury as ray ray’s replacement. I wouldn’t put this past the Celtics regime.
Some interesting stuff there Lex. It is strange because most of the moves I see proposed and rumored are more like panic moves than upgrade moves. Trading Perk and Walker for a draft pick? Trading Ray and Rondo? I think it would be a mistake to break up the starting lineup. Those are panic moves and the Celtics don't need to panic. They need to build a strong bench to back up said starting 5.
Remember Danny himself was traded for Pinckney and Kleine. Why? We were loyal to the big three and refused to trade them. Danny is in a tough position. Is our ship sinking? Or do we have one more title in us? If KG is healthy and we pick up sheed, I like our chances. If Danny agrees, we probably won't be very good in three years. If Danny wants to rebuild while trying to win a championship, we could see some ugly kind of deal between now and next summer, as Rondo probably deserves a near max contract, and that could make things even harder for danny.
